🤯 Union marks for two! This is how Buli clubs should be

A fifth of the Bundesliga season has already passed, the table is making more and more sense. However, the stats also show that some teams are performing extremely well, others are just as underperforming.

This can be seen in the expected points of all Bundesliga clubs. These stats are based on expected goals and expected goals against. In short, it’s about the quality of all odds per game – and how likely they are to succeed. You can find a detailed explanation HERE.

Expected points (xPTS) indicate how many points can be expected from each team based on the quality of the chances. Below, we take a look at the Bundesliga’s biggest over- and under-achievers. Figures are from ‘understat.com’.

Union in their own league on the road

The biggest gap between the expected points and the points actually obtained is in Union. According to statistics, the Koepenickers scored an incredible 7.6 points too many with their 17 points. If you sort the clubs by their expected points, Union would only be eleventh.

As a result, FC Augsburg also earns significantly more than it earns or allows. The Bavarian Swabians are 4.54 points too many and even have the second worst xPTS value in the entire league (+4.46, ahead of Bochum). TSG Hoffenheim again has the third largest positive spread (+2.35).

When looking at the biggest underachievers, it’s no surprise that FC Bayern are at the top. Munich haven’t won the last four league matches, but have always had a clear advantage. According to the calculations of statisticians, the FCB is missing 4.26 points, so they should be the first.

Own exploitation of chances as well as critical opponent efficiency are also issues at Bayer Leverkusen (-3.6) and Hertha BSC (-3.24), making the start of the season worse than it was. actually wasn’t. For the ranking: Hertha should be twelfth in the table directly behind Union, Bayer would climb at least one place.

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From the perspective of underachievers, it is positive to note that luck and bad luck balance out to some degree over the course of the season, i.e. there is usually an approximation towards zero . Conversely, this does not mean that overachievers will soon not score at all. There are also individual outliers within a season. BVB, for example, had almost eleven points more in the previous season than the statisticians had calculated.